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Material Flow Modelling for Environmental Exposure Assessment – A Critical Review of Four Approaches Using the Comparative Implementation of an Idealized Example
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Datum
2013
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Shaker Verlag
Zusammenfassung
Newly developed materials such as engineered nanomaterials are produced in increasing amounts and applied in a
growing number of products. Once released to the environment, they can pose a hazard to ecosystems and human
health. To assess potential risks, the exposure of the material to humans and the environment has to be determined.
For many materials such as engineered nanomaterials, a quantitative measurement of environmental concentrations is
not feasible. Material flow models can be used to determine these concentrations indirectly by predicting material
flows in the environment. Several modelling approaches can be applied to represent existing knowledge about the
flows of materials into and between environmental media or compartments and to consider the uncertainty and variability
of the input parameters. In this study we evaluate four existing approaches with regard to their capabilities for
indirect exposure assessment, focusing on their ability to treat uncertainty. We first explain how we preselected the
four most promising modelling approaches: material flow analysis, system dynamics, material flow networks, and
probabilistic material flow analysis. We then define a set of evaluation criteria based on the requirements of environmental
exposure assessment and develop a simplified example system that is designed to test these criteria. Based
on the comparative modelling and implementation of the example system, we discuss the capabilities and limitations
of the approaches and indicate what is missing for a reliable environmental exposure prediction using material flow
modelling.