Konferenzbeitrag
Using Risk Analysis to Capture the Spatial Spread of Avian Influenza, Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Control Strategies, and Assessing the Impact on the Poor
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Datum
2007
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Shaker Verlag
Zusammenfassung
Avian influenza represents an emerging disease of key interest, with potential impacts extending from human morbidity and mortality to economic disaster for those involved in the poultry industry. A main concern is that the highly pathogenic virus may develop through a combination of mutation and reassortment into a strain transmittable by humans. Many evaluations to date have focused on prevention and eradication strategies in poultry populations, while little attention has been paid to understanding the impact of those measures on the livelihoods of poor households in Asia and other countries to which the disease may spread. A collaborative initiative was launched in May 2007 that includes assessing economic impacts at the local level to guide more fully informed control strategies. This initiative involves assessing risks considering the spatial spread of avian flu through various mechanisms, evaluating the costeffectiveness of candidate mitigation measures, and assessing impacts on the poor. Interlinked modules have been defined to frame this joint evaluation across geographic regions and economic scales. This paper outlines the technical concepts of this new study and the role of integrated analyses.