Auflistung nach Autor:in "Afflerbach, Patrick"
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- ZeitschriftenartikelA Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment(Business & Information Systems Engineering: Vol. 63, No. 4, 2021) Afflerbach, Patrick; Dun, Christopher; Gimpel, Henner; Parak, Dominik; Seyfried, JohannesResearch has shown that aggregation of independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds?? (WOC) has sparked substantial interest. However, previous studies on strengths and weaknesses of aggregation algorithms have been restricted by limited empirical data and analytical complexity. Based on a comprehensive analysis of existing knowledge on WOC and aggregation algorithms, this paper describes the design and implementation of a static stochastic simulation model to emulate WOC scenarios with a wide range of parameters. The model has been thoroughly evaluated: the assumptions are validated against propositions derived from literature, and the model has a computational representation. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by investigating aggregation algorithm behavior on a detailed level, by assessing aggregation algorithm performance, and by exploring previously undiscovered suppositions on WOC. The simulation model helps expand the understanding of WOC, where previous research was restricted. Additionally, it gives directions for developing aggregation algorithms and contributes to a general understanding of the WOC phenomenon.
- ZeitschriftenartikelDer Wertbeitrag von Prozessflexibilität(Wirtschaftsinformatik: Vol. 56, No. 4, 2014) Afflerbach, Patrick; Kastner, Gregor; Krause, Felix; Röglinger, MaximilianDie Bedeutung von Flexibilität im Allgemeinen wie auch von Prozessflexibilität im Speziellen nimmt kontinuierlich zu, da sie versprechen, mit steigender Nachfragevielfalt und -unsicherheit umgehen zu können. In den letzten Jahren haben die Prozessmanagement- sowie die Produktions- und Operations- Management-Community zahlreiche Ansätze vorgeschlagen, um den Wertbeitrag von Prozessflexibilität zu untersuchen und herauszufinden, wie sich ein angemessener Prozessflexibilitätsgrad bestimmen lässt. Die meisten dieser Ansätze sind jedoch recht restriktiv, was ihren Anwendungsbereich anbelangt, und vernachlässigen Eigenschaften der untersuchten Prozesse und deren Outputs, die über Nachfrage und Kapazität hinausgehen. Zudem wird Prozessflexibilität nur selten einer umfassenden betriebswirtschaftlichen Analyse unterzogen. Die Autoren schlagen daher ein Optimierungsmodell vor, mit dessen Hilfe sich ein angemessener Prozessflexibilitätsgrad im Einklang mit den Prinzipien der wertorientierten Unternehmensführung ermitteln lässt. Das Modell berücksichtigt Nachfrageunsicherheit, Nachfragevielfalt, Kritikalität und Ähnlichkeit als Prozesseigenschaften. Sie berichten zudem über Erkenntnisse, die sie bei der Anwendung des Optimierungsmodells auf die Umdeckungsprozesse eines Versicherungsmaklerpools gewonnen haben.AbstractPromising to cope with increasing demand variety and uncertainty, flexibility in general and process flexibility in particular are becoming ever more desired corporate capabilities. During the last years, the business process management and the production/operations management communities have proposed numerous approaches that investigate how to valuate and determine an appropriate level of process flexibility. Most of these approaches are very restrictive regarding their application domain, neglect characteristics of the involved processes and outputs other than demand and capacity, and do not conduct a thorough economic analysis of process flexibility. Against this backdrop, the authors propose an optimization model that determines an appropriate level of process flexibility in line with the principles of value-based business process management. The model includes demand uncertainty, variability, criticality, and similarity as process characteristics. The paper also reports on the insights gained from applying the optimization model to the coverage switching processes of an insurance broker pool company.
- ZeitschriftenartikelThe Business Value of IT in Light of Prospect Theory(Business & Information Systems Engineering: Vol. 57, No. 5, 2015) Afflerbach, PatrickA key problem with IT decision-making is that the real value contributions of IT projects are unknown ex-ante to their executions. Thus, an organization has to rely on the expectations and perceptions of its decision makers. Moreover, these perceptions are prone to biases and display only a transfigured or irrational image of reality. This paper examines how these biases are related to the business value of IT (BVIT) and how IT decision-making can be rationalized. To this aim, a model is set up based on prospect theory, which is a frequently cited theory from behavioral economics used to descriptively analyze human value perception under risk. Applying the results found via prospect theory to IT decisions, the “perceived” BVIT is quantified and analyzed. Based on the model, the paper shows that the irrationalities rooted in human value perception provide explanations for two central paradoxes of IT. First, it reveals that they cause a disparity between the anticipated value-adding effects of IT and the actual measured outcomes, reflecting a famous observation within BVIT research known as the “productivity paradox of IT.” Second, recent studies show that IT increases the operational efficiency and competitiveness of organizations. However, only the operational effects are perceived in practice. In the paper, this one-sided perception is referred to as the “perception paradox of IT”. It is ultimately concluded that a rethinking of the position of IT within modern organizations and the establishment of suitable corporate governance mechanisms can resolve these issues, avoid irrationalities, and positively influence the performance impacts of IT.