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Stability of multivariate representation of business cycles over time

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2002

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Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V.

Zusammenfassung

In order to replace the univariate indicators standard in the literature (cp. [Opp96]) by a multivariate representation of business cycles, the relevant 'stylized facts' are to be identified which optimally characterize the development of business cycle phases. Based on statistical classification methods we found that, somewhat surprisingly, only two variables, 'wage and salary earners' and 'unit labor costs', are able to characterize the German business cycle not only the most stable over all subcycles but also with a quite reasonable error rate.

Beschreibung

Weihs, Claus; Garczarek, Ursula (2002): Stability of multivariate representation of business cycles over time. Informatik bewegt: Informatik 2002 - 32. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Informatik e.v. (GI). Bonn: Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V.. PISSN: 1617-5468. ISBN: 3-88579-348-2. pp. 787-792. Regular Research Papers. Dortmund. 30. September - 3. Oktober 2002

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