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Auflistung nach Autor:in "Alcamo, Joseph"

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  • Konferenzbeitrag
    Global Change Meets Global Policy: A New Impulse for Global Environmental Informatics
    (Environmental Communication in the Information Society - Proceedings of the 16th Conference, 2002) Alcamo, Joseph
    As interest in global change research and policy grows, so too grows the need for support from informatics specialists. These needs are so comprehensive that they justify a new initiative for “Global Environmental Informatics“. The tasks of this initiative would cover all of the major facets of global change research and policy support, including the development of global data bases and data sets, modeling of the global environment, environmental scenario analysis, integrated assessment, and the engagement of informatics specialists themselves in the policy development process.
  • Konferenzbeitrag
    LandShift: Global Modelling to Assess Land Use Change
    (Managing Environmental Knowledge, 2006) Alcamo, Joseph; Schaldach, Ruediger
    This paper presents the conceptual design and sample calculations of a new global land use model “LandShift”. The model is designed to be highly modular in order to incorporate submodels that cover different parts of the global land use system and to allow new models to be added from the rapidly advancing field of land use research. It combines GIS and simulation analyses to provide both a dynamic and spatially-resolved picture of global land use changes. The basic idea is to use a modified cellular automata approach to allocate land after the suitability of land is evaluated with a suite of state-of-the art dynamic models. New features for a large-scale land use model include (i) the simulation of crop productivity with a dynamic model that provides a link between changing land use and other global change processes, (ii) the first scheme for dynamically estimating the potential of irrigated land worldwide, and (iii) a user interface for automatically translating qualitative knowledge from land use research into internal model coefficients.
  • Konferenzbeitrag
    Outlook on Water Use in Europe in 2030
    (Informatics for Environmental Protection - Networking Environmental Information, 2005) Flörke, Martina; Isoard, Stéphane; Alcamo, Joseph
    One of the major objectives of this study was to improve our water use models by using country-specific historical data and to produce quantitative estimates of the future water use in Europe-30 up to 2030, including the impact of climate change. In order to assess the future water use situation in the Europe-30 region, a scenario and a modeling approach were combined. In this paper, we present the results of a baseline scenario reflecting a continuation of current trends over the time horizon from the base year 2000 to 2030. Depending on this scenario, the trend of total European water withdrawals is expected to decrease by 10%, and a change of the main sectoral water use in Europe is observed. At present, the most important sector in Northern Europe is the electricity production, but in the future it is assumed to be the manufacturing sector. In the new EU Member States, the most important sector is the electricity production, but this is expected to be replaced by the domestic sector. Water withdrawals in Southern Europe and in the EU Candidate States are currently dominated by agricultural water use and are expected to remain so.