Konferenzbeitrag
Stability of multivariate representation of business cycles over time
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Dokumententyp
Text/Conference Paper
Datum
2002
Autor:innen
Zeitschriftentitel
ISSN der Zeitschrift
Bandtitel
Quelle
Informatik bewegt: Informatik 2002 - 32. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Informatik e.v. (GI)
Regular Research Papers
Verlag
Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V.
Zusammenfassung
In order to replace the univariate indicators standard in the literature (cp. [Opp96]) by a multivariate representation of business cycles, the relevant 'stylized facts' are to be identified which optimally characterize the development of business cycle phases. Based on statistical classification methods we found that, somewhat surprisingly, only two variables, 'wage and salary earners' and 'unit labor costs', are able to characterize the German business cycle not only the most stable over all subcycles but also with a quite reasonable error rate.