Innovated Model REPAS for Calculation of CO2 Emission from Passenger Cars in Developing Ccountries
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Motor vehicles, as fossil fuels consumers, contribute in a large scale to emission of carbon dioxide, CO2. It is very important to quantify the volume of the gas emitted into the atmosphere. This paper introduces innovative model REPAS for calculation of CO2 emission from passenger cars, taking into account certain specific features not included by other models, proper to transition countries. Based on this model, software REPAS 1.1 was developed, for calculation of total emission of CO2 as well as specific emission of CO2, involving data for fuel use according to manufacturer declaration for 1620 vehicle types by various manufacturers. In the paper model REPAS was implemented on passenger car fleet in the Republic of Montenegro. The results of applying the model have been compared to those obtained through the application of the models COPERT III and REMODIO, revealing considerable aberrations. Very important segment in the area of modelling of CO2 emission represents the prediction of emission parameters for the certain period in the future. The conception of REPAS model enables, not only the calculation of emitted quantity of CO2, and specific CO2 emission, but also the prediction of these parameters in the future as well. This is to be achieved through prediction of the trend of change of individual parameters used in the model REPAS. Wording below presents the prediction of CO2 emission for Montenegro by the year 2020. Two scenarios are presented, named optimistic (OPTIMIST) and pessimistic (PESSIMIST).