Nguyen Thi Minh, HanhDinh Duy, ChinhVu Van , ManhJohannsen, Vivian KvistJensen, StefanWohlgemuth, VolkerPreist, ChrisEriksson, Elina2019-09-162019-09-162015https://dl.gi.de/handle/20.500.12116/25658Aluminium production in Vietnam will increase several times over in the next few years if Dak Nong aluminium smelting project is realized. Indeed, aluminium smelting is a commodity industry with highly volatile prices. This research uses system dynamics to predict the industry to explain the part of volatility. Because of huge electricity requirement and potential to reduce electricity consumption through recycling, aluminium smelting is a special interest of environmental research. Besides the large price volatility will impact directly on production and consumption of aluminium and lead to waste or adversely affect to the environment and society. This research begins with initial model of aluminium industry. Concluding with a discussion of system dynamics and commodity production cycles, the focus is on assessing the impact of producers lag time and variable demand to price volatility. The longer the producers lag time is, the larger the price volatility is. Also with variable demand, the price will be larger fluctuated. At the end, by increasing the proportion of recycled aluminium from 25% to 40%, 8.44 Gwh of electricity power will be saved after 96 months and this will open a more sustainable direction for Vietnam aluminium industry.Text/Conference Paper