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Using system dynamics model to assess aluminium price volatility and propose solutions to save energy
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Datum
2015
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University of Copenhagen
Zusammenfassung
Aluminium production in Vietnam will increase
several times over in the next few years if Dak Nong
aluminium smelting project is realized. Indeed, aluminium
smelting is a commodity industry with highly volatile prices.
This research uses system dynamics to predict the industry to
explain the part of volatility. Because of huge electricity
requirement and potential to reduce electricity consumption
through recycling, aluminium smelting is a special interest of
environmental research. Besides the large price volatility will
impact directly on production and consumption of aluminium
and lead to waste or adversely affect to the environment and
society. This research begins with initial model of aluminium
industry. Concluding with a discussion of system dynamics
and commodity production cycles, the focus is on assessing
the impact of producers lag time and variable demand to price
volatility. The longer the producers lag time is, the larger the
price volatility is. Also with variable demand, the price will be
larger fluctuated. At the end, by increasing the proportion of
recycled aluminium from 25% to 40%, 8.44 Gwh of electricity
power will be saved after 96 months and this will open a more
sustainable direction for Vietnam aluminium industry.