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On the Influence of System-Dynamics-Based Modelling on Sustainability Discourse – Relevance Today
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Datum
2012
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Shaker Verlag
Zusammenfassung
The report to the Club of Rome on the “Limits to Growth” was issued in the year 1972. The modelling work underlying the warnings and recommendations in the report were produced using the System Dynamics “philosophy”, e.g. a
specific view on how to analyse system structures, how to apply scenario methodology to global environmental problems, and a technical tool to unveil the dynamics of the system behaviour.
The report was extremely influential on early environmental discussions and establishing an ecological movement in
the 1970ies. Later on, revised versions of the model were published in 1992 and 2004, the earlier one under the title
“Beyond the Limits”. Several events are organized in 2012 to celebrate the 40 years period of influence of the reports.
In my opinion there are two aspects with which their influence can be described. Firstly, there is the System Dynamics machinery itself. Thinking in feedback loops, positive and negative circles, different types of dynamics (changing
from growth periods to stabilized stages), considering the interplay of sub-systems in order to show the general system behaviour, are nowadays proven elements in several system studies, like the Syndroms approach and numerous
environmental simulation studies.
Secondly, the involvement of stakeholders is another important aspect. Dana and Dennis Meadows, the main authors
of the studies mentioned, attached great importance to team working in interpreting results and distributing knowledge about the system behaviour. Shortly after having published the reports they started to organize meetings with
decision makers, opinion leaders, and affected people to discuss results and consequences and give support to a dissemination of their insights.