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Simulation of Land Use Dynamics through a Cellular Automata Model Based on GIS, Neighbourhood Analysis, and Compromise Programming
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Datum
2005
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Masaryk University Brno
Zusammenfassung
This paper describes the development of a cellular automata (CA) model as a reliable procedure for the urban simulation. The definition of transition rules of a CA model is the most essential part to obtain realistic simulation of urban land use. Land use change is the result of a complicated decision-making process, however, methods to drive the transition rules are lacking. In the context of urban land use dynamics, neighbourhood interactions are often addressed both in theories for urban development and in dynamic models of land use change. Based on Geographical Information System (GIS), we analyse the neighbourhood characteristics of the land use change of the Dresden City Region for the years 1780, 1880, 1900, 1940, 1953, 1968, 1986, and 1998. This neighbourhood characterization is helpful in the definition of transition rules for cellular automata. In second part, we present the CA model and the integration of the knowledge extracting from the neighbourhood analysis and the Compromise Programming (CP), a multiple criteria optimization method, in the CA model. Using the CP we carry out an ecological evaluation of land use options and built the result into transition rules of the CA. Finally, we report about programming the model in Arc Macro Language (AML) and about simulation results.