P049 - 25. GIL Jahrestagung 2004 - Integration und Datensicherheit – Anforderungen, Konflikte und Perspektiven

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Konferenzbeitrag
Ecologic-economic modeling of agricultural land use for policy decisions: An integrated model implemented for north eastregion of Germany
(Integration und Datensicherheit – Anforderungen, Konflikte und Perspektiven, Referate der 25. GIL Jahrestagung, 2004) Ajibefun, Igbekele Ajibefun; Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Wieland, Ralf; Mirschel, Wilfried
This article presents an integrated ecologic and economic model to study landscape and land use change, using the Spatial Analysis Modelling Tool (SAMT). The study involves integrating these models to analyse landscape and land use changes in Quillow region of North East Germany. Different price and premium scenarios were implemented to indicate the likely effect of policy change. Results of the study shows that if prices received by farmers go up by 20% while subsidy remains at the same level, gross margin would increase by about 16% and a higher crop coverage. However, a 20% rise in premium received by farmers would significantly lead to lower crop coverage in the region. The results of the study have important policy implications considering EU CAP policy and the World Trade Organisations (WTO) negotiations.